⚠️ This page shows simulated backtest data, estimated from historical XAUUSD data (trend-following model),not live results, live performance may differ from the backtest.
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE · trend following · Plan C caliber: starting capital $10,000 · conservative starting size + manual step-ups
Total return (9.7 years)
15.39×
Max drawdown (MaxDD)
-36.9%
$10,000 → $153,896 (+1,439.0%) · CAGR 32.5% · longest underwater 1,202 days
2016-08 → 2026-04 · 9.7 years · 256 trades · fixed starting position size, stepped up manually after profits
📋 Caliber and policy disclosure (capital-add cutover on 2026-07-30 — read this before the numbers)
①
Position-sizing regime change: the Trend live account has been upgraded from a $1,000 account with minimum fixed sizing to a
$10,000 account with a conservative starting size + manual tier-ups on account high-water marks after profits (three manual tiers). Every figure on this page is a
full re-run under the new Plan C caliber — not a proportional scale-up of the old backtest.
②
Discretionary component: the 15.39× ROI
depends on all three tier-up calls being correct — tier-ups are executed by a human; different judgment gives materially different results,
not a fully mechanical outcome.
③
Live boundary: live trades before the 2026-07-30 deposit come from a $1,000 account (minimum sizing),
not the same order of magnitude as this page’s new caliber, so per-trade amounts are not directly comparable; trades after that are under the new caliber and reconcile trade-by-trade against MT5 (see HISTORY on the home/product pages).
CAGR
32.5%
ROI 15.39× (+1,439.0%)
Max drawdown
-36.9%
-$46,562 (peak-relative · occurred at a high sizing tier)
Win rate
40.2%
103 wins / 153 losses
Profit factor (PF)
1.60
Wins are 2.38× losses (stepped caliber)
Total trades
256 trades
Average hold 3.3 days
Longest losing streak
8 trades
Be mentally prepared before following
⚠ Under the new caliber, this is no longer"Mild"strategy — understand the downside first
Plan C caliber backtest max drawdown
-36.9% (-$46,562, occurred at the top position-size tier),even within the starting tier there was
-15.1%;Before following, you must accept: ①
Win rate only 40.2%——
More losing trades (153) than winning trades (103),relies on"Big winners, small losers"(payoff ratio 2.38×) to come out ahead; ②
Longest losing streak: 8 trades、
Longest underwater period: 1,202 days (39.5 months)— requires exceptional patience to hold; ③ under the tiered caliber the worst single day reached
-$11,280(2026-03-06). Backtested figures are hypothetical and were not achieved in a live account; live results may be worse.
Equity curve $10,000 → $153,896 · small starting position + manual tier-ups · trade-by-trade compounding (backtest, not live)
Annual returns table Year by year: trades / wins-losses / annual return / max drawdown that year / year-end equity · fixed-sizing backtest (not live)
| Year | Trades | Wins/losses | Annual return | Intra-year MaxDD | Year-end equity |
|---|
| Loading… |
Losing years (2016/2019/2021/2022) shown honestly, not hidden. 2026 covers half a year (months 1-4).
Drawdown curve Account underwater vs historical high · deepest -36.9% overall (fixed position tier · not live)
Exit analysis Trend hallmark: rarely swept out by hard stops; exits on trend-reversal signals
Trend-reversal exit
251 (98.0%)
Exits naturally when the trend ends
Hard stop-loss exit
5 (2.0%)
Fixed-distance hard stop-loss as a backstop
Low win rate, high payoff ratio: only 40.2% of the 256 trades won, but the average winner of $3,717 is 2.38× the average loser of $1,562 (tier-ladder caliber) — the money comes from a minority of big trend trades while the rest grind small losses. Only 5 trades (2%) actually hit the hard stop; the vast majority exited on trend reversals. Followers must accept the counter-intuitive fact that losing trades outnumber winners.
Extremes Biggest winner / worst loser + max drawdown + losing streaks (shown honestly)
Largest winning trade
+$35,626.50
Largest single-trade loss
-$7,564.50
Max drawdown
-36.9% (-$46,562)
Longest losing streak
8 trades
Longest underwater period
1,202 days
Avg holding period
3.3 days
Note: the CSV has no per-trade MFE/MAE (intraday max floating profit/loss) fields, so realized largest single-trade profit and loss are used instead.
⚠ Honest disclosure: the above is a 9.7-year historical backtest (trend-following strategy · Plan C: $10,000 start · conservative starting size + manual tier-ups after profits (three manual steps) · signal rules identical to live), not live results.
Backtest exits are priced at the actual post-gap open, never assuming fills at the stop price. The 15.39× ROI depends on all three tier-up calls being correct (a discretionary component — not fully mechanical); a 40.2% win rate means losers outnumber winners, with the edge coming from the payoff ratio; longest losing streak 8 trades, max drawdown -36.9%, longest underwater 39.5 months — it takes patience. Past performance is not indicative of future results; live may differ from backtest.
Trend · running live
Under the new caliber, returns and drawdowns scale up together: expect a low win rate, drawdowns on the order of -36%, and long underwater periods. Follow only with idle funds.
View live status →
Data source: XAUUSD historical backtest · Trend · Plan C $10,000 · small starting position + manual tier-ups · not a guarantee of live performance
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